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The question of whether Vance was dead or not became more than academic when he found himself in a bathtub up to his chin in ice water like some forgotten cocktail garnish, a demonic woman standing over him, and no memory of how he got there.
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Read free chapters of The Red Rook here (or get it here). -- Fritz Freiheit

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Habitable exoplanets are bad news for humanity (link)

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Artist's concept of Kepler-186f

https://theconversation.com/habitable-exoplanets-are-bad-news-for-humanity-25838

This is a pessimist's view of the Fermi Paradox.

The biggest issue I have with applying the "one exoplanet has life (therefore life is common)" equals "reduced chance for human survival" is the logical next step in this sequence of inferences, namely, "life is common" equals "high tech civilizations capable of communicating with us are common". This second step is a big one. One of the problems with dealing with the Fermi Paradox is that we just don't have the data to put probabilities on any of the steps in equation (How common is life? How often do tool using sapients evolve? How often do high tech civilizations evolve? How long do they attempt to contact other civilizations? etc.) Frankly, we won't be able to put much of a probability of occurrence of life even if we discover life on Kepler-186f. We'll just know that we aren't special. So yeah, one step in the Fermi Paradox equation will resolve a little. The rest of the equations probabilities will continue to swamp out any real predictions. So, we are just left with (most) of our personal preferences left intact. So if you believe that life leads to intelligence and intelligence leads to self-destruction, you'll take the sign that Kepler-186f has life to simply reinforce this belief, and if it doesn't have life, then hey, we still are completely in the dark about the probability of our own demise. (As if -- I think we know better. We have control over our fate. But apparently not our willpower to do anything about it.)

Personally, I'll take the lack of life on Kepler-186f to be counter intuitive at this point and look for reasons why not, rather than reasons why for.

Kepler186f-ArtistConcept-20140417.jpg
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